市场动态研判需要多维信息:成交量、换手率、资金流向、行业情绪、宏观数据及突发事件。像侦探一样把线索拼在一起,既有短线信号也有中长期逻辑。权威统计显示,全球交易与市值格局在近年发生变化,投资者需把宏观与微观结合(参考 World Federation of Exchanges 年报、各类监管年报)[5]。
[1] Kahneman D., Tversky A. (1979) Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1914185
[2] Barber B. M., Odean T. (2000) Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Journal of Finance. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/0022-1082.00273
[3] Markowitz H. (1952) Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2975974
[4] Fama E. F., French K. R. (1993) Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(93)90023-5
[5] World Federation of Exchanges, Annual Statistical Report 2023;中国证券监督管理委员会年报及各类市场统计报告。